Why Does My EV’s Estimated Range Drop So Much on Cold Mornings?

My electric car’s range estimate can fall noticeably after it sits outside overnight in cold weather, even when the battery percentage barely changes. Once I start driving, the estimate sometimes shifts again.

How much of that change comes from the battery temperature, cabin heating, or the car recalculating its recent energy use? I’m trying to understand what a cold-weather EV range estimate actually tells me before a longer trip.