How might a weak monsoon show up in Indian food prices and rural incomes?

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A below-normal monsoon is often discussed as a rainfall problem, but the effects can differ sharply between regions and crops. I’m trying to understand how a shortfall might travel from the farm to household budgets.

Which indicators would give an early picture of the impact: reservoir levels, sowing figures, crop forecasts, or market prices? And how do irrigation access and government procurement change the outlook for farmers and consumers?

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