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When a group aligned with Iran attacks U.S. forces or another regional target, it can be difficult to tell how much Tehran directed the operation. That uncertainty matters: governments may respond to the attack, to the suspected sponsor, or to both.
How should analysts distinguish between a group acting on its own priorities and one carrying out a state’s instructions? I’m also curious how that ambiguity affects deterrence: can threats aimed at a government prevent attacks by partners it may not fully control?
