Is the Russia-Ukraine war actually closer to ending in its fifth year, or further away?

Honestly, further away than it looked a year ago. In early 2026 there were active talks with American mediation, and there was a moment when a ceasefire seemed possible. Then the Iran war started, Washington's attention shifted, the talks wound down, and Russia used the breathing room to launch a spring offensive with some of the biggest bombardments of the whole war.

On the ground, neither side is winning decisively. Russia is grinding forward slowly at enormous cost. Ukraine has turned drones into a strategic weapon, hitting Moscow's airports, energy infrastructure, and even shipping far from the front. Some Ukrainian units now take prisoners using drones alone. That is a war of attrition with new technology, and attrition wars end when someone runs out of something, not when someone wins.

The economics have shifted too. A temporary US waiver on Russian oil sanctions, meant to ease shortages caused by the Gulf crisis, handed Moscow billions in extra revenue. That reduces the pressure on Putin to deal.

What could change it? A US decision to either fully re-engage or fully walk away, a European security guarantee that Ukraine could accept, or exhaustion on one side. None of those is imminent. The realistic expectation is another winter of war.