The Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 changed the negotiation dynamics in essence. By winning the battles on the territory, Kyiv wanted to achieve a beneficial position in negotiating after recapturing the land. This was an early stage to pursue a diplomatic approach before realizing any gains as it could only leave it weaker. Winning was the prerequisite to achieve good terms.
Russia strengthened its stand by employing maximalist demands. Moscow demanded any agreement with it to accept its illegal annexation of four regions of Ukraine as a non-starter. This stance essentially compromised Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. As a result, reaching compromises was not an option by Kyiv.
There was a great mistrust that rendered negotiation toxic. Ukraine had considered Russian promises to be not trustworthy because of the violated treaties, such as Minsk accords. Russia rejected the aspirations of Ukrainian sovereignty and western assurances. Both sides did not trust each other to stick to any possible bargain.
Diplomacy was made difficult by external influences. Western countries provided more military aid to Ukraine which strengthened the determination of the Kyiv to fight. Russia was trying to get the support of its allies such as China in its war. This outside help decreased the felt necessity of both parties to compromise on the moment.
After all, fundamental stands proved not to be reconcilable. Ukraine insisted on returning all Russia to the borders before 2014, including Crimea. Russia was not ready to give seized land and demanded that Ukraine remain neutral. This gap in the foundations, aggravated by the stakes of the counteroffensive, precluded meaningful discussions.
Conclusion:
The 2023 counteroffensive became such a time when both parties thought that the military operation could produce irreconcilable objectives. The conflicting intentions of liberation of Ukraine and annexation of Russia, strong distrust and external contributions to war created an impassable barrier. Neither saw enough vulnerability or temptation to bargain and the peace efforts became stalled in fierce fighting. The fundamental conflict on the territory and sovereignty was not solved.
