How might current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affect global energy markets this year?

For the rest of 2026, the biggest question is whether tensions remain a risk to shipping or turn into a sustained loss of oil or gas supply. Markets can react sharply to the threat of disruption even before any barrels are lost, so volatility may rise without a lasting shortage.

The key pressure points are the Strait of Hormuz disruption risk and attacks or delays affecting Red Sea tanker routes. A prolonged interruption around Hormuz could constrain exports from Gulf producers, including Qatari LNG. Even when cargoes keep moving, higher oil shipping insurance costs, rerouting and longer journeys can push up freight and delivery costs.

The price effect would depend on how much supply is actually affected, how long the disruption lasts, and whether other producers can compensate. Available OPEC+ spare capacity could help cushion a shortfall, though its location and the ability to move exports matter. Inventories and weaker-than-expected demand could also limit a rally; a serious, sustained disruption would make a sharper increase more likely.

Oil benchmarks are exposed to global supply fears, while natural-gas effects are often more regional and depend on which LNG cargoes are delayed or redirected. In short, the main near-term risk is greater price swings and higher transport costs, with the scale of any lasting price rise tied to actual disruption rather than headlines alone.