Geopolitical risk refers to the potential political, economic, or military threats to a country or region that could disrupt normal business operations and negatively impact the economy or the well-being of the population. These risks can stem from a wide variety of factors, such as political instability, economic sanctions, war or conflict, civil unrest, terrorism, natural disasters, or disease outbreaks.

Geopolitical risk can vary greatly from one country to another, depending on a number of factors, including the country's political and economic stability, the level of government corruption, the prevalence of civil unrest or terrorism, and the risk of natural disasters. Countries that have a long history of political instability, authoritarian rule, or economic turmoil are often considered to have a higher level of geopolitical risk than those that are more stable and prosperous.

Some countries are considered to be high-risk due to ongoing conflicts, such as Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan, while others may be at risk because of political or economic instability, such as Venezuela or Zimbabwe. Some countries are at high risk due to a combination of factors, like North Korea, which has a closed society with little knowledge of what is going on.

When assessing geopolitical risk, it's important to consider both the short-term and long-term risks to a country or region. Short-term risks are those that are likely to occur within the next year or two, such as the risk of war, civil unrest, or a natural disaster. Long-term risks, on the other hand, are those that may take several years or even decades to materialize, such as demographic changes, economic stagnation, or the emergence of new technologies that could disrupt traditional business models.

When it comes to investing, managing, or doing business in a country, understanding the geopolitical risks can be vital to make informed decisions. Companies, investors, and governments will take these risks into account when evaluating opportunities in foreign countries, and might take steps to mitigate these risks through diversification, hedging, or insurance.

Which country is safe from future geopolitical turmoil?

It's difficult to say which country is completely immune to future geopolitical turmoil, as political and economic conditions can change rapidly and unpredictably. However, some countries have generally been considered more stable and safe from geopolitical turmoil than others.

For example, countries that are part of the European Union and the Nordic countries are generally considered to be politically stable and have a high standard of living. Countries in North America and Australia/New Zealand are also often considered to be safe from political turmoil, due to their strong economies and political systems.

On the other hand, many countries in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia are known to be more politically and economically unstable. Additionally, some countries with a long history of authoritarian or dictatorial rule, and countries undergoing rapid changes, might be more prone to geopolitical turmoil than others.

It's worth noting, however, that even countries that are considered to be politically stable can be affected by external events, such as the ongoing pandemic, economic crisis, and the changing global power dynamics.

Additionally, geopolitical turmoil can take many different forms, including civil unrest, terrorism, economic sanctions, and military conflicts. And it's not just the present situation of a country that should be considered, but also how it is adapting to the changing world and what are the potential triggers of instability.

It's also important to note that the concept of safety and stability is relative and can vary depending on an individual's perspective or situation, such as their level of mobility, their occupation, or the industry they are in.